Assumed the testable

Description

  • Your product tests exactly one hypothesis. Making needless assumptions just compounds your chance of failure before the real exam actually begins.

Disproof

  • Your problem statement has exactly 1 (one) thing that you need to fuck around and find out about, and it is explicitly defined as your product hypothesis

Consequences

  • You become that company known for torching millions to build something they could have found out wouldn't work/sell just by asking a few passerby

Causes

  • Usually, a combination of excitement and a damn-the-torpedoes attitude, exacerbated by people trying to look good
  • It's rare to be completely oblivious. Normally, the excitement to build runs away from you juuust long enough that when you come to your senses, sunk-cost fallacy kicks in, and "the only way out is through", etc.
  • Unfortunately, there is a very real fear of being disagreeable / being blamed for wasting time that somehow leads to people doubling down and wasting more time

Approaches

  • Look at your problem statement. If any assumptions can be tested without building the entire product first, it is your duty to validate those to the best of cost effectiveness
  • Take a good hard look at what remains and work out how screwed you’d be if none of your assumptions turned out to be the case, and decide if you’ve got the stones to roll the dice
  • That’s not to say don’t do it, as you’ll find out a lot by being in contact with reality. This might provide workable opportunities, but either have a plan or be prepared to think very fast and definitely have some budget
  • Practice...sigh...awareness. Have something built in to your way of working that structurally forces you to come up for air